Public Prediction Bulletin

Abstract

I subject the models defending 135 null claims in 81 articles recently published in top economics journals to equivalence testing, which assesses whether an estimate is significantly bounded within a given region around zero. I specifically evaluate how often the models defending these null claims can significantly bound their estimates beneath conventional effect size benchmarks. This survey asks you to make predictions and judgments about equivalence testing failure rates in this sample.

Study ID sspp-2024-0008-v1
Authors Jack Fitzgerald
Discipline Economics
Field Applied Econometrics, Econometrics
Completion Time 15 Minutes
Close Date April 30, 2024


Citation
Jack Fitzgerald. 2024. "Equivalence Testing in Economics." Social Science Prediction Platform. March 26. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/602202



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Abstract

We examine the impact of ideological alignment between institutions disseminating research findings and policymakers on adopting evidence-based policies. We conduct a country-wide RCT in which two ideologically opposite prominent think tanks, two major newspapers, and a research institution with nonsalient ideology to communicate the exact same information about a low-cost, non-ideological, and effective policy based on published research findings to a large sample of Spanish local policymakers. We measure the direct impact of information on policy adoption. We propose a three-stage conceptual framework of policy adoption processes - selective exposure to information, belief updating, and policy implementation. Finally, we discuss the trade-offs between effectiveness and outreach when using ideologically aligned and non-salient institutions to disseminate research evidence and comment on the economic impact of ideological alignment for policy implementation.

Study ID sspp-2024-0007-v1
Authors Pedro Rey-Biel, Jorge García-Hombrados, Berkay Ózcan, Antonio Roldán-Monés, Ángel Martínez, Marcel Jansen
Discipline Economics, Political Science
Field Political Economics, Public Economics, Experimental Economics, Political Economy, Behavioral Economics
Completion Time 5 Minutes
Close Date April 12, 2024


Citation
Rey-Biel, Pedro, García-Hombrados, Jorge, Ózcan, Berkay, Roldán-Monés, Antonio, Martínez, Ángel, and Marcel Jansen. 2024. "Evidence based policy adoption and ideological alignment." Social Science Prediction Platform. March 11. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/z486dd



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Abstract

The regular provision of unconditional cash transfers to individuals is a tactic to fight poverty that has attracted significant interest from researchers and policymakers. Despite this interest, many fundamental questions about the effects of receiving sustained unconditional cash transfers remain. We evaluate a large U.S. guaranteed income program implemented by two nonprofits. 1,000 individuals in the treatment group will receive $1,000 per month for 3 years, while a control group of 2,000 individuals who receive $50 per month will serve as the comparison group. The study offers an opportunity to inform both the debate over unconditional cash assistance and other questions about the effects of income that typically elude causal identification.

Study ID sspp-2023-0050-v1
Authors Alex Bartik, David Broockman, Sarah Miller, Elizabeth Rhodes, Eva Vivalt
Discipline Economics, Political Science
Field Economics Of Education, Health Economics, Labor Economics, Political Economics, Behavioral Economics
Completion Time 20 Minutes
Close Date March 31, 2024


Citation
Bartik, Alex, Broockman, David, Miller, Sarah, Rhodes, Elizabeth, and Eva Vivalt. 2023. "The causal effects of sustained unconditional cash transfers: Experimental evidence from two U.S. states." Social Science Prediction Platform. September 18. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/22edc4

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Incentive Details

Incentive Type Based on forecast accuracy
Calculation Method Continuous: Based on quadratic forecast accuracy (quadratic scoring rule)
Recipient Pool Everyone receives the incentives


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Abstract

This study evaluates the effects of a significant salary increase for Junior Panchayat Secretaries (JPS) in Telangana, India, aligning their pay with that of regular Panchayat Secretaries (PS). Previously, JPS earned substantially less than PS, despite performing nearly identical duties in village administration and development. The Telangana government's policy reform in July 2021 equalized their salaries. We will ask you to the impact of this pay rise on the performance of these bureaucrats, measured through various metrics, including supervisor assessments, self-reported data, and citizen evaluations.

Study ID sspp-2023-0066-v1
Authors Siddharth George, Martin Mattsson
Discipline Economics
Field Development Economics, Public Economics
Completion Time 10 Minutes
Close Date Jan. 31, 2024


Citation
George, Siddharth, and Martin Mattsson. 2023. "Impact of Salary Equalization on Panchayat Secretaries' Performance in Telangana." Social Science Prediction Platform. November 17. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/60a22c



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Abstract

Research has found that women are more likely to disregard their own preferences in favor of those of others, including in romantic relationships and social interactions with the opposite gender. For example, women consistently give more in dictator games in which they can decide how to allocate a given amount of resources between themselves and others. Teenage girl empowerment programs are widely used to address these and other gender disparities, recognizing the potential lifetime benefits of early changes in girls’ trajectories and that attitudes and behaviors are most malleable at a younger age. This study examines the effects of a teenage girl empowerment campaign, called SKY club, in Nairobi, Kenya, where gender inequalities are prevalent. Through a TV series, magazine articles, Youtube and other social media content, the SKY club seeks to strengthen the bond between girls (“sisterhood”), increase their confidence, encourage them to resist peer pressure and express their own needs and preferences. We assess the direct effects of this campaign on participants as well as within-household spillover effects on other teenagers and young adults.

Study ID sspp-2023-0067-v1
Authors Tinghua Yu, Uchechi Annaduaka, Selina Hofstetter, Anna Wilke
Discipline Economics, Political Science
Field Development Economics, Comparative Politics
Completion Time 15 Minutes
Close Date Jan. 31, 2024


Citation
Yu, Tinghua, Annaduaka, Uchechi, Hofstetter, Selina, and Anna Wilke. 2023. "Direct and Spillover Effects of a Teenage Girl Empowerment Program: Evidence from a Randomized Controlled Trial in Nairobi, Kenya.." Social Science Prediction Platform. November 10. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/d4yfz0